On Monday, after rejecting Iran’s latest peace proposal, Trump said the U.S.-Iranian cease-fire is still on “life support”, but it was also revealed that he is studying and judging the re-use of force against Iran.
Affected by the news that the U.S. and Iran failed to agree on a peace deal, the U.S. dollar index jumped higher, then erased most of the day’s gains, and ultimately closed up 0.09% at 97.92; benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.413%, and 2-year U.S. bond yields, which are sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, closed at 3.966%.
As the dollar and U.S. bond yields narrowed their intraday gains, precious metals opened lower and then higher. Spot gold hit a high of 4748.55, up nearly $100 from the day’s low, and eventually closed up 0.43% at $4734.97/oz; spot silver rose even more, driven by technical buying, and eventually closed up 7.18% at $86.12/oz.
U.S.-Iran tensions continue to make the energy supply risk lingering, international oil prices after the high open to maintain gains. wti crude oil once back above $100, and finally closed up 3.4%, at $98.62 / barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 3.74%, at $102.51 / barrel.

On Friday, strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April increased the Fed’s bottom line to keep interest rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the UAE was attacked again, and the restrained exchange of fire between the United States and Iran in the area around the Strait of Hormuz returned to calm but the situation remains tense.
U.S. dollar index in the early Asian trading session after the U.S. and Iran burst into a firefight to refresh the daily high, but then erased all the gains during the day, and ultimately closed down 0.433% at 97.84, last week recorded the fifth decline in six weeks, hitting a low of more than two months; benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.359%, the Fed’s policy rate-sensitive 2-year U.S. bond yields closed at 3.895%.
Precious metals range-bound, waiting for clarity on the U.S.-Iran deal. Spot gold once approached the $4,750 mark and eventually closed up 0.6% at $4,714.89 per ounce; spot silver closed up 2.35% at $80.35 per ounce.
International oil prices were under pressure, despite sporadic exchanges of fire between the U.S. and Iran, but both sides have no intention of escalating the situation, thus supporting the market’s optimism about the prospects for peace. wti crude oil finally closed down 3.12% at $95.37/barrel; brent crude oil finally closed down 2.4% at $98.82/barrel.

The dollar index overall performance shock this week. Driven by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, once stood on 98.5; mid-week U.S.-Iraq ceasefire is expected to heat up, oil prices plummeted, the dollar fell back to 98 below, closed at 97.84 on Friday, for the second consecutive weekly decline. The core logic of the market around oil prices, risk aversion and the Federal Reserve interest rate is expected to switch.
Precious metals this week, the overall first down and then up. Gold early in the week by the “high oil prices push up inflation expectations” dragged weaker, but in the middle of the week with the oil price plunge, gold prices quickly returned to 4700 U.S. dollars above, closed at 4715.49 U.S. dollars / ounce on Friday, up 2.17%. Silver performance is stronger, risk appetite repair superimposed on the industrial attributes led to its rise significantly ahead of gold, closed at $80.33 / ounce on Friday, up 6.64%.
International oil prices experienced a “geopolitical premium collapse” this week. At the beginning of the week, Brent is still above $100, but in the middle of the week, the market bets on the U.S. and Iran close to a ceasefire, Brent oil plummeted and lost the $95 mark, WTI once fell to $90 near.
Non-US currencies, the yen has become the biggest anomaly this week, the Japanese authorities are suspected of multiple interventions, including on Wednesday, the dollar against the yen short sharp fall from 157.8 to near 155, and then back above 156, showing that the intervention mainly suppress the rhythm of fluctuations. The euro was driven by the dollar’s retreat, maintaining oscillations above 1.17.

The controversy surrounding the Strait of Hormuz added to market volatility on Thursday as investors closely watched the progress of the U.S.-Iran peace talks.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell and then rose, before continuing to rise after Iran’s still limited opening of the Strait of Hormuz, ending up 0.26% at 98.26. U.S. bond yields rallied, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. yield closing at 4.391%, and the 2-year yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, closing at 3.913%.
While market expectations that the U.S. and Iran may be close to an interim deal eased inflation concerns, the central point of contention was put on hold limiting the precious metals’ gains. Spot gold showed an inverted V trend, the U.S. market from the highs above $4,760 / ounce back down, erasing all the intraday gains, and finally closed down 0.08% at $4,687.24 / ounce; spot silver trend was similar, and finally closed up 1.4% at $78.43 / ounce.
International oil prices rebounded in a deep V. WTI crude rebounded in response to Iran’s introduction of new rules for the Strait of Hormuz to continue its efforts to institutionalize control of the waterway, ending up 1.45% at $99.27/bbl; Brent crude ended up 0.79% at $101.25/bbl.
The three major U.S. stock indexes retreated collectively, with the Dow closing down 0.63%, the S&P 500 down 0.38%, and the Nasdaq down 0.13%, while Arm (ARM.O) fell 10%, Tesla (TSLA.O) gained 3%, and Intel (INTC.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 3%. The Nasdaq China Gold Dragon Index closed down 1.4 percent.